Compared with 2023, increases in both production and exports are forecast for the European Union (EU) poultry sector this year.
For EU member states, year-on-year increases of 4% in production and 3% in exports of poultry meat are forecast for 2024. Furthermore, these trends are expected to continue into next year.
These are among the positive forecasts in the autumn 2024 update in the series “Short-term outlook for EU agricultural markets” from the European Commission (EC) Directorate-General for Agriculture and Rural Development.
Generally across agriculture, the EC notes a trend towards stabilization of the markets following a series of economic shocks and volatility for the current year. However, the report is more positive still for the poultry meat sector, while cautioning that highly pathogenic avian influenza remains a “high concern” for the industry across the region and elsewhere in the world.
Production recovery set to continue
For the first six months of 2024, total EU production of poultry meat was 4% higher than in the comparable period of last year.
This figure was driven in part by exceptional increases in France and Hungary. Expansion amounted to 116,000 metric tons (mt) and 34,000mt, respectively. These increases equated to nearly 16% and 14%, respectively.
Six-month output totals for France and Italy this year are well over 20% higher than in the same period of 2022.
While most member states raised output in both 2023 and 2024, poultry meat production was down year-on-year for the latest six months in Lithuania, the Netherlands, and Sweden. Compared with 2022, Dutch production has dropped by almost 5%.
Over the January-June 2024 period, producer prices across the bloc remained over EUR2,500 (US$2,740) per metric ton.
For 2025, the EC is forecasting a smaller year-on-year increase in production of 0.9% as a result of a stabilizing global market and growing price competition from other meats.
EC is forecasting a significant increase in per-capita consumption in 2024 of almost 1kg or 3.5% to 24.6kg, based on plentiful supplies and generally positive consumer attitudes to poultry across the EU. For next year, uptake growth is expected to slow to around 0.6% at 25.2kg.
EU exports up, imports down in 2024
Shipments of EU poultry meat during the first half of 2024 were up 11% year-on-year, according to the EC’s outlook report. Export volume for the period close to 900,000mt.
Contribution to this increase were higher volumes to destinations including the Philippines, Democratic Republic of Congo, Vietnam, the United Kingdom (U.K.), and Saudi Arabia. Of the major markets, only Ukraine received lower shipments of EU meat than in the comparable period.
For the whole of 2024, the EC is forecasting a 3% increase in poultry meat exports by the bloc.
In contrast, first-half imports of poultry meat into the EU were around 420,000mt. This is 4.5% (20,370mt) less for the January-June period than in the first half of 2023.
While product from the U.K. showed a significant recovery, volumes from Brazil, Thailand, and Ukraine were all lower than last year — each by between 11 and 12%.
A year-on-year decline of 0.5% is forecast by the EC for the EU’s total poultry meat imports this year. However, it cautions over uncertainties over developments in the main countries of origin during the rest of this year and into 2025.
