While three months remain in 2024, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) is projecting that 6% fewer turkeys will be raised in the country than were in 2023.
The agency issued its Turkeys Raised report on September 27, where that projection was made. The report is based on information provided by 296 turkey grow-out operations who were contacted in February and September.
Estimates are provided for 13 of the nation’s largest turkey producing states, but state-specific information is not provided for some of the states with less turkey production in order for the USDA to avoid potentially disclosing data for individual operations.
States with expected steady turkey production
None of the states mentioned in the survey are expected to see an increase in turkey production in 2024, although four are expected to keep production in 2024 equal to that of the previous year.
According to the report, Indiana is expected to again produce 20 million turkeys, while Ohio is projected to produce 6.5 million turkeys, just as it did in 2023. Production in California is expected to stay at 6.2 million turkeys, while West Virginia is expected to keep production at 4 million turkeys.
Those four states are respectively the nation’s fourth, ninth, 10th and 12th largest turkey producers.
States with expected turkey production reduction
On a percentage basis, South Dakota, the nation’s 13th largest turkey producer, is forecast to see the biggest yearly drop at 15%. After producing 3.3 million turkeys in 2023, it is expected to raise 2.8 million turkeys in 2024.
Minnesota, the nation’s largest producer, could see a 12% production decline, going from 38.5 million turkeys in 2023 to 33.5% in 2024. Also with a double-digit percentage drop anticipated is Michigan, which is forecast to produce 4.6 million turkeys in 2024, compared to 5.2 million in 2023. Michigan ranks as the country’s 11th largest turkey producer.
Other state projections include:
- Arkansas, the third largest turkey producing state, is expected to drop 7%, from 27 million to 25 million turkeys.
- Iowa, the fourth largest turkey producing state, is expected to drop 3%, from 11.5 million to 11.2 million turkeys.
- Missouri, the fifth largest turkey producing state, is expected to drop 9%, from 17 million to 15.5 million turkeys.
- North Carolina, the second largest turkey producing state, is expected to drop 5%, from 29 million to 27.5 million.
- Pennsylvania, the eighth largest turkey producing state, is expected to drop 2%, from 8 million to 7.8 million turkeys.
- Virginia, the sixth largest turkey producing state, is expected to drop 1% from 15.5 million to 15.4 million turkeys.
In the states not specifically identified, production is collectively anticipated to decline 52% from 26.3 million to 25 million.
NASS will release its final estimates for 2024 in April 2025.
