The pandemic upended supply chains and impacted consumer behavior in ways that are just now being fully understood with the benefit of hindsight. It has generally been viewed as contributing more positively than negatively to protein demand, but as the years go by, it increasingly seems the longer-term impact on turkey – and whole birds, more specifically – has been a net negative.
Whole turkeys have long been a centerpiece of holiday gatherings and meals, Thanksgiving most prominently but also Christmas and Easter to a lesser extent. Anecdotal evidence suggests that holiday gatherings in the United States have been dwindling in size for quite some time already, but the pandemic clearly accentuated the trend.
Demand fallout
It’s not that traditional holiday offerings have fallen completely out of favor now that gatherings have gotten smaller, on average, but the number and size of those offerings are being “tweaked.” For a group of 25+ family and friends, preparing two 16-18 pound toms might be sufficient, or at least a good starting point. By contrast, a group of 8 people might view one 10–12-pound hen as being more than enough.
With the latter example becoming far more common than the former, it suggests less of a need for bulkier offerings, like whole toms, and more of a need for smaller offerings such as whole hens and, going another step down the size ladder, bone-in whole turkey breasts. There is evidence that whole turkey demand has languished across the board in recent years, but looking at the category more closely, it’s heavier-sized birds leading the charge lower.
Inventory adjustments follow
Cold storage adjustments in recent years appear to corroborate changing consumption patterns. Frozen hen stocks averaged nearly 103 million pounds annually during the 2010s and averaged just shy of 110 million pounds in 2019 before plunging to 79 million pounds in 2020 and less than 67 million pounds in 2021.
Reduced output has certainly been a contributing factor, but it’s clear that relatively stable hen consumption has removed any hint of a “surplus” from the supply chain. The recovery path has been slow, but buyers are slowly putting more hens back into cold storage during the year to stay on top of resilient, if still mediocre, demand in this segment.
By contrast, frozen tom stocks were not drawn down as aggressively during the pandemic as end user interest did not hold up as well as it did for hens. As interest in heavier-sized toms has waned further in recent years, frozen stocks in this segment have kept trending lower on an average annual basis, with buyers incrementally adjusting to falling demand in this specific weight category.
Questions abound for producers
Combined frozen stocks of hens and toms averaged just shy of 171 million pounds in 2023, which marked the lowest annual average since 1984, and average inventory levels this year are on track to be even smaller. While changes for the heavier-sized tom category are more significant – and negative – than with lighter-sized hens, it’s clear a historic shift is underway for the entire whole turkey segment.
The question going forward is if U.S. turkey producers are flexible enough to get ahead of this shift sooner than later to better match supply with demand and ease this period of financial stress on the sector.
