If the president-elect of the United States follows through on campaign pledges to make changes to immigration policy and implement mass deportation of undocumented workers, it is likely to impact the U.S. meat and poultry industry in multiple ways.
Len Steiner, founder and principal of Steiner Consulting Group, said many people have thought that such changes proposed by President-elect Donald Trump will likely mean a smaller workforce at plants and production facilities. But it will also mean fewer consumers in the United States to purchase meat and poultry.
Steiner shared his views while speaking during the webinar, “2025 Economic Outlook for Meat and Poultry,” held December 10 and hosted by the Meat Institute.
Steiner said the meat industry has relied on immigrant labor for decades, and those jobs are a good fit for those coming to the United States who seek a better life. Both of Steiner's grandfathers immigrated to the United States around the same time, and one of them had his first job in the U.S. at a meat processing plant.
“I think that’s been the tendency for many for a long time. You don’t have to know the language, and you can make a decent income,” said Steiner. “So, we’re likely to lose some workers, and that’s going to be a problem for production.”
If mass deportations do occur, fewer immigrants working in the meat and poultry industries will be a concern, Steiner said, but those who do not will also impact the industry. Regardless of their source of income, immigrants are still consumers.
“We’re also going to lose some mouths to feed, and if they don’t consume it, then we end up with more product. Somebody’s got to consume it, or the price comes down,” said Steiner.
“If we lose population, that’s not good if you’re trying to be in a business that you want to grow.”
Expect more plant closures
Also during the webinar, Steiner addressed a question related to plant closures in the United States.
During the past 10 days, it has been announced that Tyson Foods will be closing three plants related to the beef industry, and Butterball will close a turkey further processing plant.
Steiner said he believes a key rationale behind at least some of those closures is because of a “spread between the cutout and the live prices.”
“There aren’t enough animals, so they’re trying to rationalize the industry,” he said. “If you’re not making money, and you’ve got eight plants, well maybe seven will do.”
Steiner believes more plant closures can be expected over the next two years, particularly in the beef industry.
Steiner also spoke in detail about tariffs and trade issues that may come to light under the Trump administration. A separate article on that topic will appear on WATTPoultry.com.
