Mark Jordan, executive director for LEAP Market Analytics, says he considers himself a pretty positive guy, but he couldn’t avoid saying what many people in the turkey industry are already thinking: that the sector is going through a “dismal time.”
Jordan talked about turkey industry dynamics during the Poultry Market Intelligence Forum, held January 29 at the 2025 International Production & Processing Expo (IPPE) in Atlanta, Georgia. And while Jordan spent more time going through the industry’s laundry list of struggles, he was also able to find some positives as near the conclusion of his talk.
Disease
Two major disease events are causing havoc for producers and greatly impacting the supply: avian metapneumovirus (aMPV) and highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI).
“Avian metapneumovirus has been very destructive in terms of knocking out fertility,” Jordan said. “Probably 5% or more of the production hit we took in 2004 was because of that, at least. Obviously, some individual breeders took bigger hits.”
He also spoke of HPAI, which has consistently been appearing in commercial turkey flocks, resulting in depopulations and disruptions to the supply.
“So, poult numbers dropped 7.3% last year, as reported by the USDA, and that’s just some very difficult times in terms of fighting through these disease issues and trying to get a handle on that,” he said.
Competition from other proteins
With a reduced turkey supply brought on by disease situations, that drives up the price. And that increased price makes it difficult for turkey to compete with proteins such as chicken breast and boneless hams, which have been enjoying lower prices.
And even one traditional symbol of stability for the turkey industry is even in question.
Turkey producers could always count on the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays for whole bird sales.
Jordan said he is seeing “a lot of shifts” in holiday consumption.
“People are kind of taking a peek at other options. And whole turkeys, especially bigger … birds, have kind of fallen out of favor,” he said. “The turkey industry has had people gunning for it for years. The pork industry has been gunning with hams. Hams have made some encroachment there, and even beef tenderloins (have).
Turkeys are the traditional thing, we’ll Try something different this year."
Other negative events
Jordan said there have been other events on a national scale that showed that the turkey industry just couldn’t “catch a break.”
He noted that turkey breast meat sales started to slip when Subway announced a significant round of store closures around 2017.
Also, in 2024 when the Listeria outbreak was traced to Boar’s Head products and led to the deaths of 10 people, the turkey industry took a hit, simply because Boar’s Head is a “major player” in the turkey industry, and that brand association did no favors for the turkey industry.
“Now, this didn’t involve their turkey breast lines, but the sales hit that they took and working through that, that had, I’m pretty sure, some spillover effects in the turkey space,” said Jordan.
Trade
One wild card for the industry is trade. Roughly three-quarters of the turkey that is exported out of the United States is destined for Mexico.
However, with a new U.S. president who has been talking about imposing tariffs on other countries, what once appeared to be a steady source of demand is now in question. That is especially pertinent with Mexico being one of the most oft-mentioned countries as a target for tariffs.
Jordan said, “If you’re in the turkey industry, you’re sweating a little bit. I mean, really, Mexico is the main reason that there is an export program for turkey. That’s a huge concern, is what happens if there’s … a trade dust-up with turkey.”
Signs for optimism
Jordan did mention several things that could be viewed as positive for the industry.
Turkey producers were able to partially offset losses at the hatchery and on HPAI-affected farms by feeding turkeys more and getting more live weight. Lower grain prices have helped make this more feasible.
He also pointed out the continued high price of beef, which cannot compete with the lower-priced ground turkey and turkey thigh meat.
“We might have another moment here with ground turkey demand,” he said. “I think there’s going to be people clamoring for some alternatives (to beef). I think like the thigh market, you’re seeing some better value. There’s one glimmer of hope for the turkey industry, I’d say you’re starting to see signs of better demand for the back half of the bird.”
